Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Pro Football Focus shares its answer.
Football and gambling are quickly becoming more American than baseball and apple pie. The NFL preseason is slated to begin on Aug. 5 and the regular season kicks off on Sept. 9.
With the season right around the corner, Pro Football Focus shared their best bets to place for every NFL team. For fans of the Miami Dolphins looking to put a little more on the line, look no further than second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
PFF is projecting that Miami’s left-handed quarterback will throw over 3,850.5 passing yards in 2021. It isn’t the riskiest bet at -112, but PFF believes it is the closest thing to a sure-fire hit when looking at props for the Dolphins.
PFF believes the Miami defense will take a step back, forcing Tagovailoa to air it out more often.
“Much of the [defenses] success was based on things that won’t necessarily carry from one year to the next,” the story reads. “They led the league in percentage of drives that ended in a turnover, led by Xavien Howard’s league-leading 10 interceptions.
“Howard is holding out, and linebacker Kyle Van Noy was shown the door — two issues among a plethora of reasons regression could be on the horizon.”
Sustainability is the hardest thing to generate in the NFL and regression in turnovers is certainly foreseeable, even if the Dolphins have one of the league’s best defenses in 2022.
If Tagovailoa breaks the 3,850.5 passing yards threshold it will be the 11th time a Miami quarterback has done so. Dan Marino has done it eight times and Ryan Tannehill did it three times.
“PFF’s fantasy projections have Tagovailoa throwing for over 4,500 yards,” the story continued. “The acquisitions of Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller V to a stable of receivers that was already decent is an added benefit.”
If the Dolphins follow through on PFF’s projections, Tagovailoa will join Marino as the only quarterbacks in team history to eclipse the 4,500 yards mark. While that may seem like a tall task, it is important to keep in mind that each team in the NFL will play 17 games this season — a first in NFL history.
The Dolphins begin their season in New England to face the Patriots on Sept. 12. Kickoff against the Patriots is slated for 4:25 p.m.