The Titans are quickly running away with the AFC South, with a two-game lead over the next best team. But it’s still early enough for a team like the Texans or the Colts to get back in the race. Both with one win apiece, Indianapolis and Houston aren’t out of it — but the margin for error is slim. Here, we decipher who might win the upcoming Texans vs. Colts matchup with a prediction, and we also provide NFL odds and a channel to watch.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts prediction and odds | Week 6
Odds from DraftKings sportsbook.
Spread: Colts -10
Moneyline: Colts -490, Texans +360
The spread for the Texans vs. Colts game opened at 9.5. It’s since moved to 10 and will likely be prone to more movement later in the week. Heading into Week 5, the Colts were 2-2 against the spread. The Texans, meanwhile, came out of Week 5 at 3-2 ATS — a notable two-game difference from their actual record.
The Texans got hit with a few big spreads over the first few weeks of the season. They weren’t able to cover a 16-point spread against the Bills, but they did cover a 13-point spread against the Browns, as well as a 9.5-point spread against the Patriots. Houston still hasn’t been great, but David Culley’s squad hasn’t been nearly as bad as it was expected to be.
The Colts are a bit tougher to figure out. They played the Rams close in Week 2, covering that spread. However, they also fell by over one possession against both Seattle and Tennessee. The Colts were banged up heading into their Monday Night Football game against the Ravens, so injuries will once again be something to watch this week.
Texans vs. Colts prediction
Indianapolis isn’t a bad team, but their offense has been up and down with Carson Wentz at the helm. Their defense, headed by Matt Eberflus, has also taken a step back so far this year. Injuries have played a hand in that regression, but things haven’t clicked for the Colts, regardless.
Head to head, the Colts still feel like the safer bet here. Returning home from a two-game road trip should be refreshing. But against the spread, picking Indianapolis is a tougher proposition.
The Colts haven’t been favorites all season. While this matchup dictates it, the Texans have been competitive against less-than-elite teams. Even against the Browns, they only lost by 10 points. The Colts aren’t good enough to completely shut the Texans out. Additionally, rookie quarterback Davis Mills is coming off the best performance of his young career.
Colts defense will be the deciding factor in this game
While the Colts’ offense still lacks an explosive element, Frank Reich’s squad has been fairly consistent, scoring a decent amount of points this year. They’re averaging over 20 points per game. And against a Texans offense that’s hot and cold, 20 points is a relatively safe number to beat. Of course, that’s not entirely up to Indianapolis’ offense.
It’ll be up to the Colts’ defense to limit Mills and Houston’s passing attack, which drew big plays from weapons like Chris Conley and Chris Moore in Week 5. The Texans’ receiving corps still isn’t very inspiring on paper, but the Colts might not be fully staffed to face them. Rock Ya-Sin sat out the game against Baltimore, and Khari Willis was on the injury report as well. Furthermore, Xavier Rhodes hasn’t played quite as well this season, allowing a 154.2 passer rating in his first two games.
I still think the Colts take this one. Yet, much like earlier Texans games, I think the 10-point spread is too generous. Indianapolis has a good chance to come out on top, but the competitive gap between these two teams doesn’t match the spread.
Prediction: Colts 26, Texans 18
How to watch and listen to Texans vs. Colts this week
Start time: 1 PM ET
Hulu + Live TV
DirecTV NFL Sunday Ticket
NFL Mobile App
Sirius XM Radio